Vegas usually gets the top two teams right. Will they again? (Photo-Larry Burton)

Comparing Preseason College Football Championship Odds From 2016 to 2017

By: Larry Burton

While the folks in Las Vegas don’t know everything and don’t predict everything perfectly, when you look at the last ten years of preseason predictions, they get a lot right and there’s usually one team that really surprises.

So let’s look at how the season ended. The top 20 teams in the final ranking were and where they were ranked by Las Vegas in terms of being one of the top teams:

Team and final ranking                                    Las Vegas Preseason Odds

1. Clemson                                                                     1. 6/1 odds

2. Alabama                                                                     2. 7/1 odds

3. USC                                                                             15. 30/1

4. Washington                                                              27. 75/1

5. Oklahoma                                                                 3. 10/1

6. Ohio State                                                                  7. 15/1

7. Penn State                                                                  40. 250/1

8. Florida State                                                               9. 15/1

9. Wisconsin                                                                    30. 75/1

10. Michigan                                                                     6. 15/1

11. Oklahoma State                                                      22. 40/1

12. Stanford                                                                        5. 15/1

13. LSU                                                                                11. 20/1

14. Florida                                                                          18. 30/1

15. Western Michigan                                                  unranked

16. Virginia Tech                                                               32. 100/1

17. Colorado                                                                       unranked

18. West Virginia                                                               40. 100/1

19. South Florida                                                               unranked

20. Miami                                                                            29. 75/1

What we see here is that they got the top two teams that played for the championship right and the third best team in the championship playoffs, Washington, was the Cinderella surprise team that springs up every year. Ohio State, the other championship playoff team, finished about where they were predicted by Vegas to be.

As stated, perhaps the season’s biggest surprise was Washington, who by early Vegas rankings was a lowly 27th place. But there were other big surprises like Penn State, picked to be around the 40th best, but finishing 7th and Wisconsin, who was picked to finish 30th but came in at 9th. These were the only teams outside the preseason top 25 to make it into the top 10.

But let’s also give a shout out to Western Michigan, Colorado and South Florida, who were unranked with over 100 to  1 odds of winning it all, but made the top 20.

As for the busts, Baylor was picked to finish 4th, but collapsed all the way to 56th. This was one of the biggest misses of all times, but to be fair, no one knew the off field issues that would kill this team. Tennessee was to have been a top 10 team, but finished 22nd. Also Ole Miss was picked to finish 11th, but sunk to 68th place.

But despite all these surprises and busts, Vegas was more spot on than not for most teams. So who are the teams that Las Vegas is seeing as the teams to beat this season? Let’s take a look.

Teams                                 Odds of winning it all

1. Alabama                                4/1

2. Ohio State                             13/2

3. Florida State                         15/2

4. USC                                         15/2

5. Oklahoma                               9/1

6. Michigan                                 14/1

7. LSU                                          16/1

8. Louisville                                 16/1

9. Clemson                                   18/1

10. Penn State                               22/1

11. Auburn                                     25/1

12. Texas                                         25/1

13. Georgia                                     30/1

14. Washington                             35/1

15. Oklahoma State                      45/1

16. Virginia Tech                           45/1

17. Florida                                       55/1

18. Tennessee                                 55/1

19. UCLA                                         55/1

20. Kansas State                             65/1

Given Las Vegas’ ability to somehow get the top two teams right more often that not, that bodes well for Alabama and Ohio State fans. And since someone else from their top ten usually makes it in the playoffs, that’s good news for teams like Florida State, Oklahoma, USC, Michigan, LSU, Louisville  or Clemson.

In 2015, the Michigan State team unexpectedly made the playoffs and last season it was longshot Washington, so who will this year’s surprise be? Why not Penn State, who certainly would have made a better showing than the Ohio State Buckeyes did in getting shut out by Clemson. But that’s why we play them and that’s what makes it so interesting to watch the season play out.

What will be interesting though is Alabama’s run to be the only team to appear in all four of the college football playoff games. What could make it even more unbelievable is if they make their fourth different quarterback. If that isn’t team dominance, one would be hard pressed to find another that fits the description any better.

Larry has been published in almost every media outlet for college sports and now primarily writes here for Touchdown Alabama. Follow Larry on Twitter for inside thoughts and game time comments at https://twitter.com/LBSportswriter

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