Alabama vs. Louisville Preview and Prediction
Mickey Welsh/Advertiser via USA TODAY NETWORK
Had Louisville found a way to convince superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson to stay in school another year, this showdown between the Louisville Cardinals and the defending champion Alabama Crimson Tide would really be something.
It still might be, but anyone planning on betting on football in the early going of the 2018 college football season may want to start by backing the Tide.
Alabama is gearing up to defend yet another championship under head coach Nick Saban. Instead of facing a tall order in stopping one of college football’s most explosive athletes, though, they’re looking at what should amount to a fairly easy win.
The top college football betting sites peg them as astonishing -24.5 favorites after all.
Louisville could still be dangerous, though. The Cardinals have a suitable replacement under center in Jawon Pass (such an appropriate name, no?), while he has no shortage of weapons with a loaded passing game.
It’s true that Louisville could threaten Alabama through the air, but the Crimson Tide’s normally stout defense is still a big problem. Beyond that, the Cardinals will have to prove they can be effective on the ground in this matchup.
And even if that all breaks just right, Louisville could still be in too deep given how dominant Alabama’s offense can be.
The Tide obviously have to figure out who they like more – Jalen Hurts or Tua Tagovailoa – under center. There is always the option of the team using both, as together they make one unstoppable quarterback.
Hurts has always been the superior athlete but doesn’t have the consistency or big arm Tagovailoa provides. There’s obviously Tua’s heroics en route to a title last year as well.
I don’t think it really matters. Hurts was good enough to get Alabama to the title game a year ago and Tagovailo won it for them.
Can Louisville Beat Alabama?
On the surface, the Tide has the edge in literally every regard. Nobody touches Saban’s history and production, while Alabama’s recruiting should make their defense as good as ever.
Offensively, assuming this quarterback situation is more luxury than disruptive, Alabama might (gulp) be even better than the team that went 13-1 a year ago.
The only caveat for me here is the fact that Alabama lost so much defensive talent in the offseason.
More specifically, legit game-changers like Minkah Fitzpatrick, Daron Payne, Rashaan Evans and Ronnie Harrison are all gone. The former three were first round picks and you might as well toss the explosive Calvin Ridley onto the pile of elite talent that is no longer saying “Roll Tide” with the rest of us.
None of that sounds good, but again, Saban knows what he’s doing, and he has plenty of talented options to turn to on both sides of the ball. It may take a bit for everything to iron out to the point where everyone again says quietly “dang it, Alabama is winning it all again”, but it wouldn’t be so silly to just go ahead and admit it right now.
What would be silly, however, is to go out of your way to back Louisville.
The Cardinals are going through a big change under center, they lack a proven rushing attack and they probably don’t have the defensive chops (71st in points allowed per game in 2017) to slow down Alabama.
Let’s keep in mind that even with a scarier option under center a year ago, Louisville didn’t really come close (47-21) against Clemson and were 0-3 against ranked opponents.
I find it awfully difficult to buy them upsetting Alabama in the first game of the year.
So, no, I don’t think Louisville can or will win this game. I think you can go after the Over (60.5) or consider the Cardinals beating this crazy point spread. Unfortunately, favoring Louisville (or simply betting against the Tide) in any way will probably end badly.
Pick: Alabama 46, Louisville 21
