Michigan State has some payback to give since this shot was taken as they walked arm in arm before Alabama and the Spartans tangled last. (Photo Larry Burton)

Why Alabama Fans Should Be Worried Over Michigan State

By: Larry Burton

Every team in the College Football Playoff Series is dangerous. If they weren’t, they wouldn’t be where they are, in the spot they earned by battling and beating some of college football’s best teams to earn that spot they’re in.

But Alabama fans should be more than just a little worried over this Michigan State team and here’s why:

1. Revenge: The last time these two teams met, I was in the press box in Orlando at the Capital One Bowl Game and watched a proud Michigan State team simply get torn to pieces, stomped into the turf and utterly humiliated. Curt Cousins, the Spartan quarterback, could hardly speak coherently after the game. Alabama had knocked him, his backup and the next guy in line out of the game. I think they finished the game with a receiver playing quarterback. Such a humiliation isn’t soon forgotten, even though no one on this team was on that unlucky team. They want some payback badly to atone for that 49-7 beating that was hardly as close as the score indicates.
2. This is one big boy defense: You better believe that Michigan State took that beating and learned from it. They knew they simply out manned down to almost every single player. Since then, they’ve recruited that defense to have SEC type players, big fast guys who like living in the weight room. Alabama fans all too well remember the day Ezekiel Elliott had on Alabama last year against a defense that most fans thought was a damn good one. He ran for 230 yards, 11.5 yards a carry and went through that Crimson line like air through a fan. Michigan State just held him for just 33 yards and 1.75 yards a carry. Now do you get why you should worry a bit? When Alabama doesn’t run, they don’t win.
3. Our quarterback vs the Spartan defense: So if Henry is unable to run as Elliott was, or if he gets banged up, Alabama’s quarterback has not shown that he can win a game with just his arm and no running game. Michigan State may only have the nation’s 75th best passing defense, giving up almost 230 yards a game, but Alabama only has the nation’s 73rd ranked passing offense with just 214 yards a game and that’s been with the running game humming along. Most people aren’t sold on Coker winning a flat out passing game against the Spartans. Michigan State has the nation’s 52nd best passing offense. Add to this that the Spartans rank 23rd in the nation in sacks and they can and will harass Coker all day long.
4. Recent Bowl play: Alabama just didn’t look good at all in its last two bowl appearances and with 27 players leaving this team after this bowl season, there may be a lot of distraction over NFL draft stock or just life after football. Such things killed the mood in the last two seasons and could again this year as well.
5. Other teams may be hungrier: This is old hat to Alabama players on this team. Most of them have been in this spot before, playing for a championship and many of these players are sporting National Championship Rings. Do the other teams have a chip on their shoulder for being so often overlooked as a real champion? Will they play with a passion that Alabama hasn’t shown in the last two post seasons? It’s something to consider.
6. Alabama has a history of starting slow: Alabama’s offense has a deadly habit of starting off slow on offense and ends the game by simply wearing out the opposing team with that pounding running game on offense and a defense that simply overpowers, out muscles and wears out opposing offensive linemen. But that is what Michigan State does too and as stated earlier, do an amazing job in shutting down any team’s running game.
7. Third down conversion rates: All season long I’ve harped on Alabama’s dismal third down conversation success rate. Presently it stands at a paltry 36.41% rate. That means that Alabama will not convert a third down situation about 75% percent of the time. They are tied for 93rd in the country in that category. By contrast, Michigan State ranks as the fifth best in country in third down conversation rate with a 50.53% success ratio. That means the Spartans will be continuing drives while the Crimson Tide runs to the bench.

Larry has been published in almost every media outlet for college sports and now primarily writes here for Touchdown Alabama. Follow Larry on Twitter for inside thoughts and game time comments at https://twitter.com/LBSportswriter

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