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SEC East Football Teams – Buy – Sell- or Hold?

By: Larry Burton

This is part one of a two part SEC football team article that evaluates which teams in each division would be a buy – sell – or hold if they were stocks. In other words, which team looks like a team to invest in, which you just hold on to a while and see a little more or which ones you dump.

This article starts in the East where the sailing was a little rockier last season than expected. We’ll begin with the teams that finished at the bottom and end with the one that stood atop their division at regular season’s end.

Missouri – 

My oh my how the pendulum swings. Since joining the SEC, Missouri has spent more time atop the SEC East than near the bottom, but now they sit there with nowhere to go but up following a 4-8 season.

Logic says it can’t get worse and to buy when things hit the bottom. But with a recruiting class than came in at around 47th in the nation, it doesn’t appear that they are going to get a huge impact from this class this year, though many of the offensive and defensive linemen they got look to be good building blocks.

Coach Barry Odum, starting his second year, has a way to go with enticing recruits, but this is a team that has some returning talent that played well at times last season including a big win against a good Arkansas team that was better than their record.

Still, though logic says to buy at the bottom, smart folks should hold what they have right now and give Odum another year and see how things trend in his second year. Then you’ll know whether to buy or sell with a lot more clarity.

Vanderbilt – 

If you bought Vandy last season, you cleaned up well. The Commodores surprised everyone with a bowl appearance and a six win season. They played competitively in most of the games they lost and Coach Dereck Mason is getting an understanding of life in the SEC that was missing early in his career.

They had the nation’s 64th best class, so they didn’t set the woods on fire and that bowl appearance didn’t sway any of the ones they were hoping for, but it was a solid class nonetheless that perhaps helped fill their holes better than the overall rankings would suggest. That might just help a team that’s used to having to do more with less than just ranking numbers.

The defense should be stingy again this season and with the experience gained by returning quarterback Kyle Shurmur, Vandy’s offense should be a step better. So it wouldn’t surprise as many people if they make it back to 6 wins this year as it did last year.

But looking at the schedule and given Vanderbilt’s history of going back to back in bowl games, now would be a good time to sell as Vanderbilt will struggle to get back to last season’s win total.

South Carolina –

Coach “Boom” Muschamp took over a pitiful team full of holes and somehow guided it to bowl season. So if you bought South Carolina last season amid all the gloom and doom talk, you cleaned up.

Logic says when you have something that unexpectedly rises, you sell and take your winnings. But South Carolina may not have peaked and you should be also be advised against holding.

With a top 20 recruiting class that included a few names, Muschamp proved what we already knew, that he can recruit and players are commits are buying what he’s selling. Most SEC schools recruit well, with the exceptions we’ll talk about here and in the next article, but still Muschamp was in the lower half of the SEC schools overall.

Still with bunch of key players returning including a quarterback you could watch grow by the game last season, Jake Bentley, a wiser move may to buy. Though they finished the season with the same record as Vandy, it was almost as surprising given the empty shelves that Muschamp inherited. With a great group of recruits and some babies that came of age as the season went on last year, the smart move is to buy. The Gamecocks should finish with a better record.

Kentucky –

If you held or bought Kentucky before last season, you made out well. The 7-6 season not only put them in a bowl, but combined with a lot of gutsy, could have / should have losses earned a lot of respect and made the Wildcats a team to be wary of in 2016.

While Wildcat fans give football a second glance while being obsessed with basketball are still hopeful that this past season and the wonderful class that Stoops brought in this year means even brighter days ahead.

But to quote Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend.”

Given the 2017 schedule and the loss of Jon Toth, an underrated leader on the offensive line at center and a few others, smart money is to sell now, take your money and run. Kentucky is not going to sneak up on anyone this season as they did last season. The best case is a 6-6 regular season but a 5 win season is more likely.

Georgia – 

The Bulldogs finished the season 8-5, clearly not the season they wanted two years into the Kirby Smart era after firing Mark Richt for basically doing the same thing. The Bulldogs just never got things running smoothly last season and had issues on both sides of the ball.

So buy, buy big and buy often. Smart saw the problems as well as anyone and he’s addressing it first of all by stocking the shelves with top talent.

With the number three overall class in the nation and the second best in the SEC, Smart got players that can come in and give immediate help, especially in the defensive secondary. An impressive stat is that the Bulldogs only lost one starter to graduation so a very veteran team returns overall.

A ten win season or better is certainly something in the realm of reality, so buy, buy, buy.

Tennessee – 

Last season the majority of the SEC writers all exclaimed that 2016 would mark the rise of the Vols to the top of the SEC East. I was never sold on that and only a miracle finish in one game got them to second.

Tennessee’s deflation over last season is going to go lower before rising again and the Vols “Brick by Brick” approach to building the program just didn’t work. The only bricks laid last season were the ones spit out in the underwear of the Vol’s fans. The mid season slump was bad enough, but at least were against name brand teams, the regular season loss to Vandy made Tennessee the third best team in their own state.

Now with Josh Dobbs gone there’s a lot more questions than apparent answers despite the nation’s 17th best class, one of the nation’s top recruits in offensive tackle Trey Smith and some other good players.

But sell for now and considering buying again in a year or two after seeing how the Vols regroup with this good signing class and other younger players.

Florida – 

Despite winning the East last season, Florida’s season reminded me of a line from a nursery rhyme, “When she was good she very very good and when she was bad she was awful.” Absolute beatdowns like the 31-10 loss to Arkansas, the 31-13 loss to Florida State and the 56-16 butt whipping by Alabama all showed that while Florida could have some good days, consistency wasn’t a strong suit.

And while it may take a while to climb up into the rarified air that Alabama inhabits, Florida constantly looks like a team that’s just a player or two away. Best advice here is to hold.

The Gator’s 9-4 season is a good measure of where they could end again, but with an opening game with Michigan, they could finish lower. Florida’s recruiting went the same way as their season last year, some good, some news, but in the end, a great finish. Just like the Gators won their bowl game big, 30-3 against a pretty good Iowa team, the Gators appeared to have this year’s recruiting class be a bust, but a strong finish game them a top 10 class and renewed hope.

A look at the schedule and it’s easy to see that things could go badly and go down to 7-6 team, but this team is nothing if not scrappy and they’ve found a way to win the East for two improbable years in a row, so you can’t count them out. Just hold and give them another year.

Larry has been published in almost every media outlet for college sports and now primarily writes here for Touchdown Alabama. Follow Larry on Twitter for inside thoughts and game time comments at https://twitter.com/LBSportswriter

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