Will Saban see any of these things take place in their next contest? (Photo-Touchdown Alabama)

Five Things That Could Cost Alabama a First Round Loss Against Clemson

By: Larry Burton

Though Alabama is a slight betting favorite over the nation’s number one team Clemson, there are problems that have popped up with the Crimson Tide that could cost them a first round loss in this year’s College Football Championship. Listed in no particular order, let’s begin:

The Defense’s Inability To Stop Clemson On Third Down – In the Auburn game, Alabama’s inability to follow up a good first and second down defense with a stop on third down was one of the reasons they lost that game. Even when Auburn was in third and long situations, somehow the vaunted Tide defense just couldn’t close the deal often enough. Auburn converted exactly half of all their third down attempts. Clemson respects Alabama’s offense and wants to keep it on the bench. Their quarterback isn’t known for throwing long, they dink and dump short passes and try and get yards after catch. Their drives could be long and very time consuming if Alabama can’t get them off the field.

Alabama’s Inability To Convert Third Downs On Offense – Despite having great running backs and talented receivers, all season long Alabama has been bad at third down conversions. OK, not just bad, they’ve sucked at it to the point of embarrassment for a top flight team. Against Auburn, Alabama converted just three first downs all game long for a very dismal 27% rate. That was half of what Auburn did and they didn’t have a stellar night themselves. They can not defeat Clemson with a third down conversion rate of less 50%, so they have some very important business to attend to in finding a way to do this. After all, Clemson’s defense rates out better than Auburn’s, so it could be a very long and disappointing game if they can’t improve this stat.

Alabama’s Inability To Stop A Mobile Quarterback – I know Alabama fans get tired of hearing this, but in the entire Nick Saban era, all of his defenses have had problems keeping a mobile quarterback in the pocket and from keeping him from moving the chains gaining important first downs. Gus Malzahn certainly knew this and took a quarterback not heretofore known as a mobile quarterback and designed played to make him more dual threat. It took Alabama by surprise and they had few answers for that quarterback gashing them for not just important first downs, but a touchdown as well. If they couldn’t stop a non too quick and slippery like Jarrett Stidham, they may have no chance against Clemson’s Kelly Bryant who is knows a running threat quarterback.

Bad Play Calling – Though it riles Nick Saban to bring it up, the play calling in the Auburn game left some fans upset. After a listless first half, Alabama opened the second half with one short pass and four consecutive running plays that resulted in an easy looking score. It seemed Alabama had the manpower to simply run it down Auburn’s throat. They would only try and run the ball 12 more times in that game despite ending the game averaging a heft 5.6 yards per carry as a team and this counting sacks. The frustration of the fans in the stands that night yelling, “Just run the damn ball!” could be heard in the press box where I was seated. Being under center and handing the ball off would have also prevented to errant snaps that cost Alabama two important drives as well. Damien Harris averaged a staggering 8.5 yards a carry and just touched the ball six times in the game and just twice after that second half opening touchdown drive.  That’s inexcusable. Bo Scarbrough averaged 7.7 yards a carry and likewise, had six carries. Ride the horses that got you to the race.

Breakdowns In The Defensive Secondary – If you look back over the Nick Saban era, most of their losses have come from the defensive secondary not being able to adequately cover receivers when the game was on the line. In prior games with Clemson Alabama’s inability to cover receivers almost cost them one game and did cost them the second championship in their games with Clemson. Hunter Renfrow, a former walk on at Clemson without remarkable speed, physically short and an unremarkable stature, has given Alabama fits in the past and is looking for another big game against the Tide. He caught the game winning TD in their last contest with just two seconds left in the game to cost Alabama another national championship. 

Larry has been published in almost every media outlet for college sports and now primarily writes here for Touchdown Alabama. Follow Larry on Twitter for inside thoughts and game time comments at https://twitter.com/LBSportswriter

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averaged 5.6 yards a carry