ESPN gives Alabama football’s probability to win each game in 2026

Sep 13, 2025; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer surveys the field during the second half against the Wisconsin Badgers at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Leong-Imagn Images

ESPN’s analytics predicting Alabama football’s odds to win each game in 2026 were released on Thursday. While the percentages listed are subject to change throughout the season, as it currently stands, ESPN gives Alabama the nod in 10 of its 12 games.

Alabama’s probability for each game is as follows:

East Carolina, 94.6%

Kentucky, 82.5%

Florida State, 81.7%

South Carolina, 78.8%

Mississippi State, 85.2%

Georgia, 41.9%

Tennessee, 59.1%

Texas A&M, 58.2%

LSU, 43.8%

Vanderbilt, 75.6%

Chattanooga, 99%

Auburn, 77.6%

According to ESPN, the Crimson Tide is the underdog in its matchup with the Georgia Bulldogs and its showdown with the LSU Tigers, now led by former Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin, in Baton Rouge.

Interestingly enough, the faceoff with the Bulldogs will take place in Tuscaloosa, but they have still been given the upper hand, even though Alabama has beaten Georgia the past two seasons, in both Athens and Tuscaloosa.

While the odds for Alabama to lose against the Tigers could partly be explained by the game taking place in Death Valley, out of the last 15 matchups between the two, the Crimson Tide has only lost two of them, once in Tuscaloosa and once in Baton Rouge.

However, it seems as though the analytics are favoring the Tigers because of Kiffin’s arrival. It’s worth noting, though, that Alabama has beaten Kiffin-led teams the past five times, but Alabama was not led by Kalen DeBoer during those games.