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Buy or Sell: Vegas Sportsbook Predicts SEC Win Totals

Cedric Mason - Touchdown Alabama Magazine

The first full list of over/under odds on win totals was recently released by The South Point Sportsbook. Some of the predicted win totals in the Southeaster Conference paint an ugly picture for 2017. When it comes to betting on over/under, the thing to keep in mind is that you are stating whether a team will have less than that many wins (under) or more than that many wins (over).

For instance, Alabama’s win total is set at 10.5, the wager for choosing under is set at EVEN. This means that you get a 1:1 return ratio of what you put in. However, the over is set at -120, meaning in order to win $100 dollars, you would have to risk $120.

In order of least predicted wins to most, here is what South Point thinks the SEC will look like:

Team: Predicted Wins [Over/Under Line]

– South Carolina: 5 [Over: -110, Under: -110]

– Mississippi State: 5 [Over: EVEN, Under: -120]

– Ole Miss: 5.5 [Over -110, Under: -110]

– Vanderbilt: 6 [Over: -130, Under: +110]

– Missouri: 6 [Over: -110, Under: -110]

– Arkansas: 6 [Over: -110, Under: -110]

– Kentucky: 7 [Over: EVEN, Under: -120]

– Texas A&M: 7.5 [Over: -110, Under: -120]

– Tennessee: 7.5 [Over: -120, Under: EVEN]

– Florida: 8 [Over: EVEN, Under: -120]

– LSU: 9 [Over: EVEN, Under: -120]

– Georgia: 9 [Over: +110, Under -130]

– Auburn: 9 [Over: EVEN, Under: -120]

– Alabama: 10.5 [Over: -120, Under: EVEN]


I am shocked to see both Ole Miss and Mississippi State slated to win so few games at 5.5 and 5, respectively. Vanderbilt at 6 wins is not as much a surprise as the fact that the sports book has the over at -130 and the under at +110, which ultimately means that Vanderbilt winning more than 6 games is relatively heavily favored.

Kentucky at 7 wins is a surprise, but also a representation of the great job Stoops has done for Big Blue Nation football. Another shocker is Florida at just 8 wins with an over set to EVEN. McElwain’s team has been to back-to-back SEC Championship games and won more than 8 games in both seasons.

Picks and Predictions:

1) Mississippi State [Over 5]: This pick is an absolute lock, and at an EVEN wager it is truly a steal. With all of the Heisman hype quarterback Nick Fitzgerald has garnered in the recent weeks, State only pulling out 5 wins would be an absolute blind side. While they barely squeezed their way into a bowl game last season, they have a lot of returning talent on both sides of the ball, a new defensive coordinator, and a veteran coach in Dan Mullen. The thing that will define their season will be the play of the offensive line, one that struggled mightily at times a year ago. Easiest money you will ever make.

2) Missouri [Under 6]: The Tigers of Colombia have only won nine games over the past two years. Despite having an elite quarterback in Drew Lock, Mizzou will need to improve in nearly every other area if they are to find a way to six wins against an improved East division. While the over and under are both set at -110, under is the way to go with Mizzou this year. By the time 2018 rolls around, the the Tigers will be contenders for the SEC, but for now they are much too young a team.

3) Florida [Over 8]: As I mentioned above, there is no way a McElwain coached Florida team is going to take this big of a step back. Besides the two straight SEC Championship appearances, it was recently announced that a rule was changed allowing ex-Notre Dame quarterback, Malik Zaire, to transfer to Gainesville. Many Florida fans have felt the Gators are just one good quarterback away, and I would have to agree. Zaire brings with him experience and poise along with a strong arm and good speed. He may not be one of the top quarterbacks in the country, but he will almost undoubtedly be more than serviceable. The best part about it – and it is likely to change – but you can get EVEN odds on the over. Cha-ching!

Jake Weaver is a lead writer for TD Alabama Magazine and Bama Hoops Hype. You can contact him via phone at 205-612-5060, or on Twitter @JWeaver_TDALMag

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