The College Football Playoff Committee has an assignment Tuesday night.
It releases the new CFP rankings ahead of conference championship games and selection Sunday on next week. Alabama football defeated Auburn University in the 89th Iron Bowl and now await the decision of the committee. The USA Today Coaches and Associated Press polls both have the Tide at No. 11, but will the CFP Committee follow the same guideline? If the Tide are No. 11 in the rankings, it is in position to get into the playoff.
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Heather Dinich, a CFP expert for ESPN, does not see Alabama at No. 11 this week.
“There’s no bigger question tonight than what do they do with Miami,” Dinich said. “I projected them to stay in because I think when you look at their two losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse, ahead of Alabama’s three losses but two of those losses were to teams with six losses each — that’s Oklahoma and Vanderbilt.
“I know there’s some questions surrounding Miami, but I’ve got Alabama in 12 in the ranking, and that would bump them out for Arizona State. But this is a coin toss. This could go either way.”
The Miami Hurricanes, according to Dinich, are the most significant team in this conversation. If the CFP Committee puts Miami in, then Alabama is out of the playoff. If the Hurricanes are out, then three-loss Alabama is in. Dinich said the committee is valuing Miami’s close losses to Syracuse and Georgia Tech, stating that Miami’s close defeats are better than Alabama’s losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma.
Another conversation is happening between Alabama and South Carolina on who should be the fourth SEC team to get into the playoff. Some favor the Gamecocks because they ended the regular season on a six-game winning streak. However, it suffered a 25-27 loss to the Crimson Tide in the head-to-head matchup on Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
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Dinich said the CFP Committee is going to value the head-to-head between Alabama and South Carolina.
“I know Gamecock fans are like, ‘What about us?’ And Shane Beamer wants them in. But I think those head-to-head results in the committee meeting room are going to loom large tonight,” Dinich said.
Dinich has Alabama at No. 12 for now because she wants to see if the CFP Committee will continue honoring Miami’s close losses. Also, she has the Crimson Tide at 12 because South Carolina’s loss to Alabama in the head-to-head keeps it behind the Tide.
Dinich is also keeping tabs on Arizona State in the Big 12, especially if it wins a conference title.
She has the Sun Devils jumping over Alabama to get to No. 12 to open the first round of the CFP if it wins the Big 12 title. Everything starts with how the committee views Miami, though.
We will see how the committee deliberates.
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Stephen M. Smith is the senior writer for Touchdown Alabama Magazine. You can “like” him on Facebook or “follow” him on Twitter, via @CoachingMSmith.
