Did ESPN’s FPI disrespect Alabama with its projected win-loss percentage for the Tide?

ESPN’s Football Power Index may have just swung at the Alabama Crimson Tide with its projected win-loss percentage for the Tide ahead of the 2026 season.

ESPN’s FPI currently has the Tide projected to win 8.6 games and lose 3.6 games.

The FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete, according to ESPN.

The measurement gives Alabama football a 41.3 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, and a 3.7 percent chance to win the National Championship.

Alabama is coming off a season where it won 10 games in the regular season. The Tide’s two losses came against Florida State and Oklahoma. Alabama avenged its loss to the Sooners by defeating Oklahoma in Norman in the College Football Playoff.

An 8-4 record for Alabama this fall will likely put the Tide right on the edge of a playoff berth. Their strength of schedule and other criteria the playoff committee considers would determine if the Tide gets in.